2015.05.11 走势分析：就业人数回升强化联储加息预期

2015-05-11

5月11日金域亞洲午评：就业人数回升强化联储加息预期

发布时间： 2015-05-11 新闻来源：金域亞洲浏览次数：5

基本面分析：

国际金价上周小幅收阳，收涨10美元后回升至1190附近止住了之前连续四周下跌的颓势，但多次冲高回落表现出黄金走势仍然空头占据主导。上周五公布的4月非农就业人数一如市场预期出现回升，尽管录得22.3万与预期值22.8万有部分差距，但持稳于20万水平上方仍有利于美联储年内启动加息进程。美元指数亦受到提振再次突破95关口，对于黄金反弹形成抑制。

迫于经济的下行压力，中国央行再次宣布降息25个基点以扶助经济，流动性的增加给黄金市场亦带来正面影响，加之欧洲央行强调将继续实施持续宽松直至通胀朝目标水平回升，带来主要经济体的宽松竞赛有逐渐扩大之势。而美国作为世界最大的经济体，在其他国家降息的环境下如果冒然加息，货币之间的利差效应将会继续拉大，对于美国出口也会造成不利影响，加息后经济前景也再次面临挑战。

技术面分析：

日线级别黄金小幅反弹，1180的支撑相对较强缓解了黄金的下行态势，但1190上方空头密布给反弹带来较大压力，短期均线走平后则增加了宽幅整理，围绕大区间1180-1200的震荡持续；四小时图布林通道横向运行后上行下探都面临阻力，下方1183和上方1193成为关键的阻力支撑。

阻力位：1193/1198
支撑位：1183/1178
交易方向：高空低多

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