5月14日金域亞洲午评：零售疲软凸显二季度经济不平坦

2015-05-14

基本面分析：

国际金价昨日突破上行，自1190美元/盎司大涨至1218附近，有逐渐逼近4月初的反弹高点之势，美国公布的疲弱的零售销售成为黄金拉涨的重要看点，在市场看好二季度经济回升的预期下，4月的零售数据令市场猝不及防，也引发了对美国上半年经济会延续疲软的担忧。美元指数受到利空打压后震荡下行并跌至3个月低位93.46，承压94关口后下方93的支撑面临考验。

由于美国4月进出口物价指数双双下降，拖累美国国债收益率小幅回落，加之欧元反弹，欧债收益率水涨船高，欧元区量化宽松的效果也逐渐凸显，通胀改善预期增强后对于美元走势构成不利影响。关于美联储加息时点的讨论也再次甚嚣尘上，由于经济数据不佳，预期将推迟至年底美联储可能会考虑上调联邦基金利率。

技术面分析：

日线级别黄金收出长阳后上行步伐有所推进，强势突破1210有利于后期黄金拓展上升空间，MACD快慢线金叉运行后逢低买盘得到加强，多重均线向上偏离则增加了反弹动力；四小时图回调整理，KD指标深入买区后偏多运行。

阻力位：1218/1223
支撑位：1208/1203
交易方向：多

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